A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
