Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
